Possible cyclonic storm

19 Oct 2023 / South India

The IMD reported weather forecast models suggest the low-pressure area in the Arabian Sea might turn into a severe cyclonic storm.

The area is centered around 12.3°N and 67.3°E, nearly 700km away from the coast, into the sea. It is likely to become well marked in the next 24hours and strengthen further subsequently.

The system is likely to develop over the southeast and adjoining east-central Arabian Sea in the next 48 hours. It is expected to track west north-westward, thereby increasing its distance from the Indian coastline and potentially evolve into a depression over the central Arabian Sea by around October 21.

Its potential strength remains ambiguous for now, but should it further intensify, this system will become the first post-monsoon cyclone in the Arabian Sea this year. At present, the probability of the system intensifying into a cyclonic storm is not notably high.

In the meantime, another cyclonic circulation lay over the southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman Sea which is likely to move west north-westwards. It is expected to influence the formation of a low-pressure area in the central parts of the Bay by October 20.

The pair of rain-bearing systems brewing on either side of South Peninsular India could give rise to some intense rainfall spells around the weekend.

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